In recent weeks, Israel has carried out a series of high-profile assassinations targeting leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, with the latest being the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. While these killings may be seen as a show of power in the short term, history shows that they can have unintended consequences that may harm Israel’s security in the long run. Previous assassinations of key figures in Hamas and Hezbollah have led to the rise of more hardline leaders who have increased the groups’ military capabilities and resolve.
For example, the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader in 1992 led to the rise of Hassan Nasrallah, who significantly increased the group’s power and influence. Similarly, the killing of Hamas’s leader in 2004 resulted in the group aligning more closely with Iran and obtaining advanced weaponry.
Israel’s reliance on assassinations as a counterterrorism strategy has been criticized as a strategic failure, as it has often led to the replacement of killed leaders with more determined and hawkish individuals. The recent killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders have not only emboldened these groups but have also provoked Iran to retaliate and undermined efforts for diplomacy.
Ultimately, Israel’s targeted assassinations may have symbolic victories in the short term but could set the stage for wider conflict in the region. Addressing the root causes of political violence, such as the occupation, apartheid, and despair among Palestinians, may be a more effective long-term strategy for ensuring peace and security in the region.
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